Now, to put that in perspective, New Hampshire used to be known as the most Republican of states, but that really wasn’t the case then nor is it the case now. We have always been a libertarian state with a conservative streak. What I mean is that while we once had among the least stringent gun laws in the country (and a very high per capita gun ownership rate) we also had very lax abortion laws. We have no state sales or income tax (which means we have very little in the way of state services). Basically, we don’t want the state government telling us what to do with our guns or in our bedrooms. My favorite New Hampshire anecdote is that it is lawful to be completely naked on the town square in many communities (including the one I live in) provided you’re not lascivious about it. A few years ago, a group of citizens held a right to bare arms march in my downtown, where everyone showed up armed to the teeth; a number of the women in the march also took off their shirts and bras to bare their breasts. That’s New Hampshire. For years, the John Birch Society could be counted on to do well here.

Today, we’re a straight down the middle 50/50 state when it comes to Dems and Republicans, but there’s a huge number of independent voters because you can declare your party affiliation on election day.

With that perspective, its no surprise that the Tea Party did very very well here initially, including a sweep of the state in 2010 – they proceeded to toss out the establishment, including Republican establishment. But …… they also went too far and did some really, really stupid things. For one, they lowered the cigarette tax to encourage the sale of cigarettes – the idea was that we already sell cheap booze, which attracts folks from Maine, Vermont and Massachusetts. Let’s sell them cheap cigarettes too and revenue will take off like a rocket ship. It didn’t – first year, tax revenue from cigarette sales was down by $150 million, so they cut funding to hospitals and the university system to make up for it.

The result: In 2012, we voted the bums out and voted establishment candidates back in, including replacing a Republican governor with a Democratic governor.

My point in all of this: Right now, that independent, libertarian, contrarian New Hampshire voter who went gaga over the Tea Party in 2010 is enamored of Trump. But, just as that voter reverted to the norm when the Tea Party over-reached and went back to the establishment, they could easily turn on Trump over the next 15 months as this thing goes on.